Friday, October 31, 2014

 

Nate Silver predicts an 18.0% margin of victory for Ige with a 97% chance that he will win


The predictor-in-chief has finally spoken, releasing his forecast for each state's gubernatorial elections just today.

Silver gives it to Ige with a 97% chance. So to the other guys: stop calling me in middle of dinner. Quit killing trees for mail ads that won't work anyway. You’ve had it. It’s over.

Here’s a snip from his chart of national races:

Hawaii1
Hawaiii2

[fivethirtyeight.com, FiveThirtyEight’s Gubernatorial Forecasts: A Lot Of Really Close Races, 10/31/2014]

You must remember Nate Silver—he has demonstrated incredible accuracy in the past. From the Wikipedia page about him:

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by one percentage point. He correctly predicted the winner of all 35 U.S. Senate races that year.

In April 2009, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time.

We’ll see how accurate he is for Hawaii. It’s possible that Silver might revise his chart as election day approaches. But 97% does sound conclusive, doesn’t it?



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