Saturday, January 05, 2008


Iowa by the numbers

An interesting analysis in RollingStone (snippet):

1/4/08, 2:30 am EST

Iowa By the Numbers

Four statistics blew me away tonight:

  1. Obama beat Hillary among women voters 35 to 30 percent.
  2. Amid record Democratic turnout, as many people under 30 showed up to caucus as those over 65.
  3. Sixty percent of the GOP electorate in Iowa were born-again Christians.
  4. Rudy Giuliani finished with a mere 4,013 votes, in sixth place, with less than half of the support of Ron Paul.

Taking them in order:

Hillary lost tonight to Barack Obama by 8 points — a margin just as wide as Mitt Romney catastrophic shortfall against Mike Huckabee.

And Obama beat her eight ways to Sunday. He edged her out among Democrats 32/31, and cleaned her clock among independents (44/17) and wayward Republicans (41/10). He beat her among people making less than $15,000 (37/30) and more than $100,000 (41/19). He beat her among health-care voters (34/30) and suburban voters (30/25).

Most astounding however, he beat her among her core supporters, women, by five points. What more can I say than — in a night of mind boggling statistics — that that’s the stat of the night.

A black man did this. In a state that’s 96 percent white. This is truly a historic night in America.


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One of the biggest numbers to me was turnout by party, with the Dems having 239,000, and only 115,000 Republicans. More than twice as many Dems, in a state that has previously been about 50-50. For the Dems, 56% were first-time caucus goers. All three top Dems got more votes than the first-place Republican.

Thanks for your comment and for pointing this out. I hope it portends something good in November.

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