Thursday, January 31, 2008
More technical analysis of the Superferry troubles
Maybe we're getting a little self-referential here. In his post tonight, Superferry taking a beating in rough seas?, Doug White refers through my link to Juan Wilson's analysis of the Superferry's rudder troubles and adds expert analysis of his own.
This is a must read. Doug is a guy who knows his way around a ship. He differs from Juan on the rudder problem, but between the two of them, I have learned quite a bit.
Meanwhile, the Superferry's website advises that it will leave port tomorrow, but on a revised schedule, leaving Oahu at 9:30 a.m. Presumably it will do so with all rudders operating. Juan said it should take longer to fix the problem. Who's right?
This Just In: As I am typing this article at around 9:45 p.m., the Superferry website has changed its Travel Alert. It's not going out tomorrow.
By leaving Oahu late, the predicted swell for Friday should have decreased. I'm not sure I understand how to interpret the NOAA forecasts, but for Friday for Maui they predict:
East winds to 25 kt. Wind waves 9 ft. Northwest swell 4 ft decreasing to 3 ft
I think that translates into a Level 3 - Orange - puke alert on the Barf-o-Meter. This means that it is probable that some passengers will be very uncomfortable (Brad, if I've got this wrong, please correct me). Coming back from Maui might be smoother as the seas calm down later in the day. They'll have time in port at Maui to swab and disinfect the decks if necessary.
And the rudder should stay stuck on if they've repaired it properly.
"East winds to 25 kt. Wind waves 9 ft. Northwest swell 4 ft decreasing to 3 ft...
I think that translates into a Level 3 - Orange - puke alert on the Barf-o-Meter. This means that it is probable that some passengers will be very uncomfortable (Brad, if I've got this wrong, please correct me)."
We are using the wind waves, the actual waves as experienced, so that is:
RED - LEVEL 4 - Definite Puking
You know, USA Today called it the Barf Barge yesterday? An IgNobel up ahead?
Also, Molokai Advertiser put out a great video of this yesterday. I have not found it online, yet. Would be great if you find and re-publish it.
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